Momentum investing

What price momentum is, the evidence that recent winners tend to keep winning for a while, how momentum is measured, and its crash risk.

The idea

Momentum is the tendency of assets that have risen over the past 3 to 12 months to keep outperforming for the next few months, and of losers to keep losing. It is one of the most studied patterns in finance and shows up across stocks, sectors, countries and asset classes.

How it is measured

  • Absolute momentum: is the price above where it was a year ago, or above its The 200-day moving average?
  • Relative momentum: rank a list by return over the last 12 months, often skipping the most recent month, and hold the top group.

Why it might work

Investors under-react to news at first and then over-react as a trend becomes obvious. Earnings upgrades also tend to come in streaks.

Risks

  • Momentum crashes: after a sharp market fall, the rebound is often led by the previous losers, and momentum portfolios can drop 30% or more quickly.
  • Turnover: frequent trading raises costs and taxes. See Portfolio turnover.
  • It is the opposite bet to Mean reversion over short windows.

Relation to fundamentals

Rising estimates and rising prices often go together. A fundamental investor may use momentum only as a check that the market is starting to agree with their thesis.

See also

Pages that link here: Managed futures, The 52-week range

Last updated September 30, 2026. Education only, not investment advice.