What it is
Each week since 1987, the American Association of Individual Investors has asked members whether they expect stocks to rise, stay flat or fall over the next six months. The results are published as bullish, neutral and bearish percentages.
Long-run averages
| Average | |
|---|---|
| Bullish | About 37.5% |
| Neutral | About 31.5% |
| Bearish | About 31.0% |
| Bull-bear spread | About +6.5 points |
Reading it as a contrarian
When most individual investors are bearish, much of the selling has often already happened. Extreme bearishness has frequently lined up with market bottoms, and extreme bullishness with tops.
| Date | Bearish | What followed |
|---|---|---|
| March 2000 | 17% | Dot-com peak; a long bear market |
| February 2003 | 58% | Near the bear market bottom |
| March 2009 | 70% | The financial crisis bottom |
| December 2018 | 50% | A sharp low, then recovery |
| September 2022 | 61% | Near the 2022 lows |
Combining it with the VIX
Readings are strongest together: high bearishness plus a high The VIX (volatility index) marks real fear, while low bearishness plus a low VIX marks complacency.
Limits
It is a small, self-selected survey. Extremes can last for weeks and are not precise timing signals.
See also
- The VIX (volatility index) What the VIX fear index measures, how it is calculated from S&P 500 options, what VIX levels mean, its history of spikes, and why it tends to mean-revert.
- Hype and market sentiment How hype, headlines and crowd emotion move stock prices away from fundamentals, and simple habits that keep your decisions grounded in the business.
- Staying invested through downturns Why missing the market's best days is so costly, why the best days cluster near the worst, and practical ways to stay invested when markets fall.
Last updated September 30, 2026. Education only, not investment advice.