How it works
6 Sig uses the same quarterly signal line as 3 Sig (the 3% Signal), with a leveraged fund and a higher target:
Signal line = last quarter's MVV balance x 1.06 + half of new contributions
Sell the surplus above the line into bonds; buy the shortfall below it from bonds. Use the calculator below with the 6% target.
Differences from 3 Sig
| 3 Sig | 6 Sig | |
|---|---|---|
| Fund | IJR or SPY (1x) | MVV (2x midcap) |
| Target | 3% a quarter | 6% a quarter |
| Start | 80/20 | 60/40 |
| 30 Down | Ignore 4 sells | Ignore 2 sells, then reset to 60/40 |
Results
The BestFolio corrected backtest found a CAGR of about 11.7%, a maximum drawdown of about -78% and a Sharpe near 0.23. Recovering from a 78% loss needs a gain of about 355%. The strategy is sometimes described as the "moderate" middle option; its drawdowns say otherwise.
Risks
Everything in 3 Sig (the 3% Signal), plus 2x leverage and Volatility decay. Midcaps also tend to fall harder than large companies in recessions.
Signal line calculator
Enter your balances at the end of the quarter. Nothing is sent anywhere; the sum runs in your browser.
Signal line = last quarter's stock balance × (1 + target) + half of this quarter's new money. The 30 Down rule, the 9 Sig buying throttle and the Spike Reset are explained above and are not applied automatically.
See also
- 3 Sig (the 3% Signal) Jason Kelly's 3% Signal explained: quarterly value averaging between a stock fund and bonds, the signal line, the 30 Down rule, backtest results and risks.
- 9 Sig The 9 Sig strategy uses Kelly's quarterly signal line on TQQQ with a 9% target. Rules, the buying throttle, Spike Reset, 30 Down history, results and risks.
- Leveraged ETFs explained How leveraged ETFs like TQQQ and UPRO work, why they reset daily, how volatility decay erodes them, and what their historical drawdowns look like.
- Leveraged strategies compared A side-by-side comparison of six leveraged ETF strategies, 3 Sig, 6 Sig, 9 Sig, TQQQ FTLT, Holy Grail and HFEA, by holdings, signals, results and risk.
Last updated September 30, 2026. Education only, not investment advice.