TQQQ For The Long Term (FTLT)

The TQQQ For The Long Term strategy explained: its 200-day regime filter, RSI branches, the research behind it, backtest claims and the risks it carries.

Education only, not advice. Leveraged and strategy-driven investing can lose most of its value quickly. Figures are historical or backtested and do not predict future results.

The idea

Hold 3x leveraged Nasdaq exposure only when the market is in a long-term uptrend, and use short-term RSI readings to avoid buying at stretched highs and to buy sharp dips. The strategy was shared by Dereck Nielsen in 2022 and has many community variants. It is described here for education.

The decision tree

Bull regime (SPY above its 200-day average):

  • Hold TQQQ.
  • If TQQQ's 10-day RSI is above 79, or SPXL's above 80, switch to UVXY (a volatility fund) for protection against a pullback.

Bear regime (SPY below its 200-day average):

  • If TQQQ's RSI is below 31, buy the dip with TECL; if SPY's RSI is below 30, UPRO.
  • If TQQQ is below its 20-day average, hold whichever of SQQQ or TLT has the higher RSI.
  • Otherwise, TQQQ.

The research behind it

Gayed and Bilello's Leverage for the Long Run (2015) found that the S&P 500 has been far calmer and stronger above its The 200-day moving average than below it, so leverage works better there. Their rule beat buy-and-hold in about 80% of rolling 3-year periods.

Backtest claims

Community backtests from 2012 to 2022 showed roughly +298%, against about +35% for simply holding TQQQ over the same window. That window favours the strategy; see Overfitting in investing.

Risks

  • Whipsaws when SPY hovers around its 200-day line.
  • UVXY can fall 20 to 30% in a day and decays steadily.
  • SQQQ is not a hedge; it is a leveraged bet on further falls. See Inverse ETFs.
  • Start-date bias in the long-run research.
  • Many variants make it easy to pick the one with the best past results.

See also

  • Holy Grail strategy The Holy Grail leveraged strategy, a variant of TQQQ For The Long Term that uses TQQQ's own trend, a cash buffer and SOXL dip buying. Rules and risks.
  • The 200-day moving average Why the 200-day moving average is the most-watched trend line in investing, what the research shows about markets above and below it, and its weaknesses.
  • Relative Strength Index (RSI) What the RSI indicator measures, how the 14-day RSI is calculated, what overbought and oversold readings mean, and the limits of using it alone.
  • Leveraged strategies compared A side-by-side comparison of six leveraged ETF strategies, 3 Sig, 6 Sig, 9 Sig, TQQQ FTLT, Holy Grail and HFEA, by holdings, signals, results and risk.

Pages that link here: If-then signals

Last updated September 30, 2026. Education only, not investment advice.